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2010 House · IL-8

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2010-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 773 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.7% · Republican 48.7%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.32% · Republican 48.47%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.7 − 48.7 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.324 − 48.467 = -0.143
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-0.143) = -2.857
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.857| = 2.857

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51764, race ID 4596 (538 database).