2010 House · IA-3
PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 37%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.73% · Republican 46.49%
D+4.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 37 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 50.735 − 46.489 = 4.246
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (4.246) = 7.754
- Absolute miss = |7.754| = 7.754
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51753, race ID 4619 (538 database).