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2010 House · HI-2

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 560 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58.6% · Republican 35.1%

D+23.5

The certified result

Democrat 72.19% · Republican 25.32%

D+46.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58.6 − 35.1 = 23.50
  2. Actual margin = 72.188 − 25.322 = 46.866
  3. Signed miss = 23.50 − (46.866) = -23.366
  4. Absolute miss = |-23.366| = 23.366

The poll overstated the Republican by 23.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51744, race ID 4586 (538 database).