2010 House · GA-8
Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 44%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.30% · Republican 52.70%
R+5.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 47.303 − 52.697 = -5.394
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-5.394) = 8.394
- Absolute miss = |8.394| = 8.394
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51740, race ID 4579 (538 database).