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2010 House · GA-2

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 914 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.44% · Republican 48.56%

D+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.441 − 48.559 = 2.882
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (2.882) = -6.882
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.882| = 6.882

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51733, race ID 4573 (538 database).