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2010 House · FL-2

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 399 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 50%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.35% · Republican 53.60%

R+12.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 50 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.350 − 53.597 = -12.247
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-12.247) = 0.247
  4. Absolute miss = |0.247| = 0.247

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51713, race ID 4548 (538 database).