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2010 House · DE-1

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 1,171 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.78% · Republican 41.04%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.781 − 41.043 = 15.738
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (15.738) = -8.738
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.738| = 8.738

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51709, race ID 4546 (538 database).