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2010 Senate · DE

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 1,171 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.61% · Republican 40.03%

D+16.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.607 − 40.030 = 16.577
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (16.577) = -6.577
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.577| = 6.577

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51709, race ID 1513 (538 database).