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2010 House · CT-5

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 911 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 52%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.02% · Republican 44.91%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 52 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.015 − 44.914 = 7.101
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (7.101) = -15.100
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.100| = 15.100

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51705, race ID 4545 (538 database).