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2010 House · CT-4

National Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 46%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.94% · Republican 46.93%

D+4.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.943 − 46.934 = 4.009
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (4.009) = -8.009
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.009| = 8.009

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51701, race ID 4544 (538 database).