2010 House · AZ-5
PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 408 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 45%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.23% · Republican 52.00%
R+8.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 45 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 43.227 − 52.002 = -8.775
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-8.775) = 5.775
- Absolute miss = |5.775| = 5.775
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51666, race ID 4473 (538 database).