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2012 House · OK-2

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 45%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.34% · Republican 57.34%

R+19.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 45 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.339 − 57.340 = -19.001
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-19.001) = 7.001
  4. Absolute miss = |7.001| = 7.001

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51549, race ID 5212 (538 database).