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2012 House · IL-2

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 819 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 27%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.25% · Republican 23.21%

D+40.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 27 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.250 − 23.215 = 40.035
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (40.035) = -9.035
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.035| = 9.035

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51370, race ID 5029 (538 database).