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2012 House · IL-11

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.56% · Republican 41.43%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.565 − 41.427 = 17.138
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (17.138) = -13.138
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.138| = 13.138

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51367, race ID 5038 (538 database).