2012 House · CA-52
Grove Insight · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 40%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.18% · Republican 48.82%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 51.181 − 48.819 = 2.362
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (2.362) = 2.637
- Absolute miss = |2.637| = 2.637
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51359, race ID 4968 (538 database).