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2012 House · CT-5

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 45.28%

D+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.333 − 45.276 = 3.057
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.057) = 0.943
  4. Absolute miss = |0.943| = 0.943

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51356, race ID 4981 (538 database).