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2012 House · NV-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 502 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.87% · Republican 50.36%

R+7.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.867 − 50.361 = -7.494
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-7.494) = -2.507
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.507| = 2.507

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51355, race ID 5135 (538 database).