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2012 House · IL-12

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,313 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50.6% · Republican 45.6%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.65% · Republican 42.74%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.6 − 45.6 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.653 − 42.738 = 8.915
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (8.915) = -3.915
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.915| = 3.915

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51349, race ID 5039 (538 database).