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2012 House · IL-10

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,257 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46.4% · Republican 53.6%

R+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 50.63% · Republican 49.37%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.4 − 53.6 = -7.20
  2. Actual margin = 50.629 − 49.371 = 1.258
  3. Signed miss = -7.20 − (1.258) = -8.458
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.458| = 8.458

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51349, race ID 5037 (538 database).