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2012 House · IL-8

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 45%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.74% · Republican 45.26%

D+9.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 45 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.742 − 45.258 = 9.484
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (9.484) = 0.516
  4. Absolute miss = |0.516| = 0.516

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51349, race ID 5035 (538 database).