2012 House · NY-21
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 629 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 43%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 43.85% · Republican 38.84%
D+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 43 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 43.855 − 38.836 = 5.019
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (5.019) = -4.019
- Absolute miss = |-4.019| = 4.019
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51344, race ID 5174 (538 database).