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2012 House · NY-21

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 403 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 40%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.85% · Republican 38.84%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 40 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.855 − 38.836 = 5.019
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (5.019) = 1.981
  4. Absolute miss = |1.981| = 1.981

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51343, race ID 5174 (538 database).