Skip to content

2012 House · NY-24

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 670 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 44%

even

The certified result

Democrat 44.11% · Republican 34.78%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 44 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.112 − 34.781 = 9.331
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (9.331) = -9.330
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.330| = 9.330

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51339, race ID 5177 (538 database).