2012 House · UT-2
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 28% · Republican 55%
R+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 33.47% · Republican 62.17%
R+28.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 28 − 55 = -27.00
- Actual margin = 33.465 − 62.171 = -28.706
- Signed miss = -27.00 − (-28.706) = 1.706
- Absolute miss = |1.706| = 1.706
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51338, race ID 5295 (538 database).