2012 House · NY-27
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 636 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 48%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.46% · Republican 41.62%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 42.457 − 41.620 = 0.837
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.837) = -1.836
- Absolute miss = |-1.836| = 1.836
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51337, race ID 5180 (538 database).