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2012 House · NH-1

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 654 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 48%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.75% · Republican 45.98%

D+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 48 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.750 − 45.985 = 3.765
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (3.765) = -4.765
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.765| = 4.765

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51322, race ID 5137 (538 database).