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2012 House · MN-8

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 1,020 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.28% · Republican 45.39%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.282 − 45.388 = 8.894
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (8.894) = -4.894
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.894| = 4.894

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51321, race ID 5116 (538 database).