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2012 House · HI-1

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 657 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 45.39%

D+9.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.613 − 45.387 = 9.226
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (9.226) = 1.774
  4. Absolute miss = |1.774| = 1.774

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51312, race ID 5024 (538 database).