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2012 House · NY-25

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.29% · Republican 33.86%

D+18.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.287 − 33.862 = 18.425
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (18.425) = -8.425
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.425| = 8.425

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51295, race ID 5178 (538 database).