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2017 Senate · AL

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2017-12-08 (4 days before the election) · 546 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46.3%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.97% · Republican 48.34%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46.3 = -0.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.966 − 48.340 = 1.626
  3. Signed miss = -0.30 − (1.626) = -1.926
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.926| = 1.926

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50672, race ID 95 (538 database).