Skip to content

2016 House · NY-24

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-18 (21 days before the election) · 673 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 54%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.59% · Republican 49.76%

R+13.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 54 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.592 − 49.759 = -13.167
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-13.167) = -9.833
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.833| = 9.833

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50600, race ID 6051 (538 database).