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2016 House · NY-19

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 605 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 48%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.95% · Republican 44.18%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 48 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.946 − 44.180 = -3.234
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-3.234) = -2.766
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.766| = 2.766

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50596, race ID 6046 (538 database).