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2017 House · GA-6

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2017-06-19 (1 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48.9%

D+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48.9 = 0.10
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = 0.10 − (-3.566) = 3.666
  4. Absolute miss = |3.666| = 3.666

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50570, race ID 1762 (538 database).