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2017 House · GA-6

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2017-05-30 (21 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.1% · Republican 47.6%

D+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.1 − 47.6 = 1.50
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = 1.50 − (-3.566) = 5.066
  4. Absolute miss = |5.066| = 5.066

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50568, race ID 1762 (538 database).