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2017 House · GA-6

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2017-06-06 (14 days before the election) · 420 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.6% · Republican 47.1%

D+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.6 − 47.1 = 2.50
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = 2.50 − (-3.566) = 6.066
  4. Absolute miss = |6.066| = 6.066

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50567, race ID 1762 (538 database).