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2017 House · GA-6

Abt Associates · fieldwork ended 2017-06-07 (13 days before the election) · 745 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 44%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-3.566) = 10.566
  4. Absolute miss = |10.566| = 10.566

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50566, race ID 1762 (538 database).