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2017 House · GA-6

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2017-06-09 (11 days before the election) · 503 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-3.566) = 3.566
  4. Absolute miss = |3.566| = 3.566

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50565, race ID 1762 (538 database).