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2016 Governor · OR

Clout Research · fieldwork ended 2016-11-03 (5 days before the election) · 981 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52.5% · Republican 41.4%

D+11.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 43.45%

D+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.5 − 41.4 = 11.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.617 − 43.453 = 7.164
  3. Signed miss = 11.10 − (7.164) = 3.936
  4. Absolute miss = |3.936| = 3.936

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50551, race ID 55 (538 database).