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2017 Governor · NJ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2017-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 540 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 31%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.03% · Republican 41.89%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 31 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.026 − 41.891 = 14.135
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (14.135) = 1.865
  4. Absolute miss = |1.865| = 1.865

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50542, race ID 1215 (538 database).