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2017 Governor · VA

Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership · fieldwork ended 2017-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 839 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.89% · Republican 44.98%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.894 − 44.977 = 8.917
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (8.917) = -2.917
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.917| = 2.917

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50531, race ID 1214 (538 database).