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2017 Governor · VA

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2017-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 713 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.89% · Republican 44.98%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.894 − 44.977 = 8.917
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (8.917) = -6.917
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.917| = 6.917

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50519, race ID 1214 (538 database).