2017 Governor · VA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2017-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 916 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 36%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.89% · Republican 44.98%
D+8.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 36 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 53.894 − 44.977 = 8.917
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (8.917) = 8.083
- Absolute miss = |8.083| = 8.083
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50516, race ID 1214 (538 database).