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2016 House · NY-1

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-29 (10 days before the election) · 607 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 57%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.10% · Republican 48.91%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 57 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.098 − 48.908 = -9.810
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-9.810) = -11.190
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.190| = 11.190

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 49223, race ID 6028 (538 database).