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2016 House · CA-31

Remington Research Group · fieldwork ended 2016-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 1,198 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 42%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.07% · Republican 43.93%

D+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 42 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.068 − 43.932 = 12.136
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (12.136) = -9.135
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.135| = 9.135

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 49214, race ID 5820 (538 database).