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2016 House · FL-13

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,066 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 45%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.90% · Republican 48.10%

D+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 45 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.903 − 48.097 = 3.806
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (3.806) = -0.806
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.806| = 0.806

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 49207, race ID 5868 (538 database).