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2016 House · FL-13

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2016-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 944 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.90% · Republican 48.10%

D+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.903 − 48.097 = 3.806
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (3.806) = 1.194
  4. Absolute miss = |1.194| = 1.194

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 49205, race ID 5868 (538 database).