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2016 President · WY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 213 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 21% · Republican 60%

R+39.0

The certified result

Democrat 21.88% · Republican 68.17%

R+46.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 21 − 60 = -39.00
  2. Actual margin = 21.877 − 68.173 = -46.296
  3. Signed miss = -39.00 − (-46.296) = 7.295
  4. Absolute miss = |7.295| = 7.295

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48910, race ID 652 (538 database).