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2016 President · WA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,451 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 33%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.54% · Republican 36.83%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 33 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.539 − 36.833 = 15.706
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (15.706) = 2.294
  4. Absolute miss = |2.294| = 2.294

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48907, race ID 649 (538 database).