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2016 Senate · VT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 454 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 75% · Republican 24%

D+51.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.26% · Republican 33.03%

D+28.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 75 − 24 = 51.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.261 − 33.026 = 28.235
  3. Signed miss = 51.00 − (28.235) = 22.764
  4. Absolute miss = |22.764| = 22.764

The poll overstated the Democrat by 22.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48905, race ID 75 (538 database).