Skip to content

2016 Governor · VT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 454 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.17% · Republican 52.91%

R+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.166 − 52.908 = -8.742
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-8.742) = 12.742
  4. Absolute miss = |12.742| = 12.742

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48905, race ID 57 (538 database).